How To Write A Mindnumbingly Dogmatic (But Surprisingly Effective) Estimate
At the top end of the analytic art sits the estimate. While it is often useful to describe, explain, classify or even discuss a topic, what, as Sun Tzu would say, "enables the wise sovereign and the...
View ArticleFarengar Secret-Fire Has A Quest For You! Or What Video Games Can Teach Us...
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a post about the 3 Things You Must Know Before You Discuss Intelligence Requirements With A Decisionmaker. That post was designed for intel professionals who have the...
View ArticleHow To Write A Mindnumbingly Dogmatic (But Surprisingly Effective) Estimate...
In my last post on this topic, I outlined what I considered to be a pretty good formula for a pretty good estimate:Good WEP +Nuance +Due to's +Despite's +Statement of AC = Good estimate!I also talked...
View Article6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker
An intel professional successfully gets everything he needs from a DM in a requirements briefing. Guess which one is the unicorn...How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to...
View Article6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker...
"And what kind of intelligence would the gentleman prefer today?"How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss their intelligence requirements to get the maximum return on...
View Article6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker...
"I challenge your assumptions, sir!"How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss their intelligence requirements to get the maximum return on that investment? Earlier...
View ArticleCall for Papers: Intelligence Community Forum (ICF) - "Intelligence Support...
Brécourt Academic and Mercyhurst University's Ridge College of Intelligence Studies and Applied Sciences, in association with Global War Studies, are pleased to announce the first annual Intelligence...
View Article6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker...
"Hic sunt dracones!"How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss their intelligence requirements to get the maximum return on that investment? Earlier this summer, I...
View Article6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker...
"Jeeves, I am fairly certain that is not what Prof. Wheaton had in mind when he said we need to constrain the requirement."How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to discuss...
View Article6 Things To Think About While Discussing Requirements With A Decisionmaker...
An intel professional successfully gets everything he needs from aDM in a requirements briefing. Guess which one is the unicorn...How can I use the limited amount of time my decisionmakers have to...
View ArticleI could use your input...
I could use your (everyone's!) input. My protagonist imagined by the very fine artist, Kris BrannockI just finished a novel I have been working on (and off and on and off) for the last two years. It...
View ArticleHow To Write A Mindnumbingly Dogmatic (But Surprisingly Effective) Estimate...
In the first post on this topic, I introduced the idea of a "formula" for a pretty good estimate. I also talked about using good words of estimative probability. In the second post, I talked about...
View ArticleHow To Write A Mindnumbingly Dogmatic (But Surprisingly Effective) Estimate...
At the top end of the analytic art sits the estimate. While it is often useful to describe, explain, classify or even discuss a topic, what, as Sun Tzu would say, "enables the wise sovereign and the...
View ArticleWhat's The Relationship Of An Organization's Goals And Resources To The Type...
"Don't blame me, blame this!"I was trying to find some space on the whiteboard in my office and it occurred to me that I really needed to do something with some of these thoughts.One of the most...
View ArticleI Am Leaving Mercyhurst And...
Look, Ma! An (almost) clean desk!... joining the US Army War College!It has been an honor and a privilege to work with the faculty here in the Intelligence Studies Department at Mercyhurst over the...
View ArticleHow To Teach 2500 Years Of Intelligence History In About An Hour
Original version of the Art of War by Sun-TzuAs with most survey courses, Introduction to Intelligence Studies has a ton of information that it needs to cover--all of it an inch deep and mile wide....
View ArticleWhat Is #COOLINT?
Apollo 11 in Real-Time is the very definition of cool.HUMINT, SIGINT, OSINT--the specialized language of intelligence is all ate up with acronyms for the various collection disciplines. Intel wags...
View ArticleEPIC 2014: The Best/Worst Forecast Ever Made?
The eight minute film, EPIC 2014, made a huge impact on me when it was released in 2004. If you have seen it before, it's worth watching it again. If you haven't, let me set it up for you before you...
View ArticleI Made It!
I started my new job as Professor of Strategic Futures at the US Army War College last week. So far, it has been a fairly predictable, if seemingly unending, series of orientations, mandatory...
View ArticleWhy The Next "Age of Intelligence" Scares The Bejesus Out Of Me
A little over a month ago, I wrote a post titled How To Teach 2500 Years Of Intelligence History In About An Hour. The goal of that post was to explain how I taught the history of intelligence to new...
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